How does a theory of change influence evaluation questions?

• A. It frames questions around causality and mechanisms
• B. It determines sample size
• C. It prescribes data collection tools
• D. It ensures external validity

Answer: (A)

A theory of change maps how an intervention is expected to lead to outcomes through specific steps and mechanisms. Because it lays out these causal pathways and the assumptions behind them, evaluation questions focus on causality and how and why change happens. You’ll ask whether the proposed mechanisms actually operate, whether the expected links hold in different contexts, and what conditions strengthen or weaken those links. This leads you to design data collection around mediators, activities, outcomes, and contextual factors, and to consider attribution versus contribution to observed changes. Other aspects like sample size, data collection tools, or generalizability are still important, but they aren’t the central reason the theory of change shapes the evaluation questions—the emphasis is on testing the causal chain and the mechanisms that drive change.